Pakistan is projected to achieve its largest primary surplus in 25 years during the current fiscal year. Topline Securities reports an expected primary surplus of 2% of GDP for FY25, facilitated by a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. The IMF requires the federal government to maintain a primary surplus, meaning expenditures must be lower than revenues before interest payments are factored in. This includes both current and development spending.

Read more: The IMF Projects Pakistan’s Economy to Expand by 3.5% for the Fiscal Year

The federal government aims for a primary surplus target of Rs. 2.5 trillion (2.0% of GDP) for FY25. The IMF’s May 2024 report estimates a primary surplus of 0.4% of GDP for FY25, which would result in a primary surplus of 1% of GDP when excluding the provincial surplus, alongside a projected deficit of 0.13% for FY24E.