Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party led the first round of France parliamentary elections on Sunday, bringing it closer to power than ever before.

With a notably high turnout, the RN bloc secured 35.15% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came second with 27.99%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance fell to third with 20.76%, as reported by the Interior Ministry on Monday.

While the RN is on course to win the most seats in the National Assembly, it might not reach the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, potentially leading to a hung parliament and increased political uncertainty.

Read more: Iran Presidential Election Heads to Runoff After Reformist Leads Voting

Projections for the second round of voting next Sunday indicate the RN could win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat lower house, a significant rise from its previous 88 seats. The NFP is projected to secure between 125 and 165 seats, with Ensemble trailing with between 70 and 100 seats.

This France parliamentary election, called by Macron after his party’s defeat by the RN in the European Parliament elections, could force him into an uneasy alliance with a prime minister from an opposition party for the next three years of his presidential term.

The RN celebration in Henin Beaumont was jubilant, but Marine Le Pen emphasized that next Sunday’s vote is crucial. “Democracy has spoken, and the French people have placed the National Rally and its allies in first place – and has practically erased the Macronist bloc,” she told supporters, adding that “nothing has been won” and the second round is decisive.

At the RN headquarters in Paris, party leader Jordan Bardella echoed this sentiment, calling next Sunday’s vote one of the most decisive in the history of the Fifth Republic. Bardella had previously stated he would not govern a minority government, meaning if the RN doesn’t achieve an absolute majority, Macron may need to find a prime minister from the hard left or elsewhere to form a technocratic government.

Following the election results, anti-far-right protests erupted in Paris and Lyon, with 5,500 people gathering in Paris’s Place de la République. Reuters later released a video of demonstrators setting off fireworks in Paris, and reported that 200 police officers were deployed in Lyon to manage the protests.

Cordon Sanitaire

With an unprecedented number of seats heading to a three-way run-off, a week of political negotiations is expected as centrist and left-wing parties decide whether to withdraw in individual seats to prevent the nationalist and anti-immigrant RN – historically marginalized in French politics – from securing a majority.

In previous elections, when the RN (formerly the National Front) performed strongly in the first round, centrist and left-wing parties have united to prevent them from winning office, following the principle known as the “cordon sanitaire.”

After Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s father and long-time National Front leader, unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialists supported center-right candidate Jacques Chirac, leading to his landslide victory in the second round.

To block the RN from achieving a majority, the NFP – a recently formed left-wing coalition – has vowed to withdraw all of its third-place candidates from the run-off.

“Our instruction is clear – not one more vote, not one more seat for the National Rally,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed, the largest party in the NFP, told supporters on Sunday.

“A long week lies ahead of us, and everyone must make their decision with conscience. This choice will shape the long-term future of our country and our destinies,” added Mélenchon.

Marine Tondelier, leader of the Green Party, a moderate faction within the NFP, personally urged Macron to withdraw from certain seats to prevent the RN from securing a majority.

“We’re counting on you: withdraw if you come third in a three-way race, and if you don’t qualify for the second round, urge your supporters to vote for a candidate who upholds republican values,” she stated.

Macron’s Ensemble allies have also called on their supporters to block the far right but have cautioned against supporting Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party.

Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protégé and outgoing prime minister, urged voters to stop the RN from winning a majority but criticized France Unbowed for hindering a credible alternative to a far-right government.

Former prime minister Edouard Philippe, another Macron ally, said: “No votes should go to National Rally candidates, but also not to France Unbowed candidates, with whom we fundamentally disagree.”

It remains uncertain whether tactical voting can prevent an RN majority. In Sunday’s election, the RN gained support in unexpected areas. In the Nord department’s 20th constituency, an industrial stronghold, Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel was defeated in the first round by an inexperienced RN candidate. The seat had been held by the Communists since 1962.

A Major Risk

Macron’s unexpected decision to call a snap election – the first in France since 1997 – surprised the nation and his closest allies. The vote, held three years ahead of schedule and just three weeks after his Renaissance party’s defeat by the RN in the European Parliament elections, has significant implications.

Although Macron has pledged to complete his final presidential term, which ends in 2027, he now faces the possibility of appointing a prime minister from an opposition party in a rare “cohabitation” arrangement.

The French government functions smoothly when the president and parliamentary majority are from the same party. Without this alignment, legislative processes can stall. The president handles foreign, European, and defense policies, while the parliamentary majority manages domestic laws like pensions and taxes.

This division can cause conflicts, potentially leading to a constitutional crisis. For example, Bardella has opposed Macron’s suggestion to send troops to aid Ukraine and has stated he would not allow French military equipment to be used against Russia. Such disputes, where domestic and foreign policies intersect, leave it unclear whose authority would prevail.

A far-right government could trigger both financial and constitutional crises. The RN has promised significant spending increases, such as reversing Macron’s pension reforms and reducing taxes on fuel, gas, and electricity, just as France’s budget may face severe cuts from Brussels.

With one of the highest deficits in the Eurozone, France might need to adopt austerity measures to comply with the European Commission’s new fiscal rules. However, the RN’s spending plans would likely increase the deficit, worrying bond markets and prompting warnings of a “Liz Truss-style financial crisis,” referencing the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister.

In a brief statement on Sunday evening, Macron said the high voter turnout indicated a “desire to clarify the political situation” and urged his supporters to mobilize for the second round.

“Against the National Rally, it’s time for a broad, clearly democratic and Republican rally in the second round,” he stated.