Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader of North Korea, has embarked on a visit to Russia using his extensively fortified private train. This diplomatic journey stands out as an infrequent international trip for Kim, representing his first venture beyond North Korea’s borders since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Meeting with Russian Officials:
During his visit, Kim Jong Un engaged with Russian officials, indicating a significant diplomatic event. Russian state media outlet TASS reported that Kim briefly disembarked from his train at the Khasan train station in Russia’s far east. There, he was greeted by Alexander Kozlov, the Russian Natural Resources Minister, and the governor of the adjacent Russian region that shares a border with North Korea. North Korean state media also confirmed this stop.
Anticipated Summit with Putin:
The primary purpose of Kim Jong Un’s visit is to hold a one-on-one summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This forthcoming meeting is of great interest to global observers, as it brings together two world leaders who have faced increasing isolation on the international stage.
Motivations and Implications:
Both countries have distinct motivations for this summit. Russia, particularly its military, is in need of fresh supplies of ammunition and shells following more than a year and a half of conflict in Ukraine, which has severely depleted its military resources. Meanwhile, North Korea, facing extensive international sanctions due to its nuclear weapons program, is grappling with shortages in various areas, from financial resources to food and missile technology.
The meeting’s potential consequences:
The meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin raises concerns about the possibility of an arms deal between the two nations. The United States has already cautioned against such an agreement, expressing apprehensions that it could lead to North Korea gaining access to weapons that United Nations sanctions have barred it from acquiring. This is especially concerning in the context of North Korea’s nuclear-capable ballistic missile program.
Monitoring by South Korea:
South Korea’s Defense Ministry is closely monitoring the situation, particularly the potential for negotiations on an arms deal and technology transfer between North Korea and Russia.
Key Delegation Members:
Kim Jong Un’s entourage for this visit includes top party officials, government representatives, and military leaders. Notably, Ri Pyong Chol, a prominent military figure and former head of North Korea’s Department of the Munitions Industry, is part of the delegation. Ri is under US and UN sanctions for his role in advancing the country’s ballistic missile programs.
Summit Details:
Neither North Korea nor Russia has specified the exact timing or location of the summit. Russian Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that the meeting would take place in the Far East in the coming days. The agenda will focus on bilateral relations and touch on sensitive areas, with a formal dinner planned in honor of Kim Jong Un’s arrival.
Geographical Context:
Russia’s Far East region, a vast territory that shares land borders with China, North Korea, and Mongolia, serves as the backdrop for this diplomatic rendezvous. Some reports suggest that Kim’s train is headed toward Khabarovsk province, bordering China, rather than the eastern port of Vladivostok.
Putin’s Recent Activities:
Russian President Vladimir Putin was attending the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where he emphasized Russia’s growing trade opportunities with countries in the Asia Pacific region. He also held discussions with China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing, underscoring the robust relationship between the two nations.
Washington’s Concerns:
The United States has issued warnings regarding the potential outcomes of a Kim-Putin meeting, especially concerning arms negotiations. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan cautioned that North Korea would “pay a price” if it struck an arms deal with Russia. The White House also urged North Korea to refrain from providing or selling arms to Russia.
Challenges and Implications:
North Korea is already under United Nations and US sanctions due to its weapons program. The possibility of North Korea acquiring technology from Russia, a leading player in nuclear missile forces, has raised concerns among Western leaders. This technology could bolster North Korea’s missile programs, posing a significant challenge for global security.
Expert Opinions:
Experts in international studies have emphasized the significance of a one-on-one meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. They note that Russia possesses military technology that North Korea seeks for its satellite launch and nuclear weapons delivery programs. On the other hand, Russia is in dire need of ammunition and small arms, which North Korea potentially has the capacity to supply.
Divergent Views:
While some analysts argue that North Korean ammunition could aid Russia in prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, others believe that it would not fundamentally alter the direction of the conflict. North Korea has previously denied exporting weapons or ammunition to Russia, and its role in this aspect remains a subject of debate.
