The US job market continued to show surprising resilience in June 2025, even as escalating economic uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and federal spending cuts cast a shadow over business sentiment.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added 147,000 jobs in June, outperforming forecasts of 117,500. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, down from May’s 4.2%, suggesting ongoing strength in employment despite mounting policy-driven headwinds.
The three-month average job growth now stands at 150,000, buoyed by upward revisions to April and May’s figures. While the headline numbers appear solid, analysts caution that job growth is concentrated in a few sectors. Health care led with 58,600 new jobs, followed by state and local government (80,000) and leisure and hospitality (20,000). However, private sector hiring slowed dramatically, contributing just 74,000 jobs, the weakest since October 2024.
Experts attribute this slowdown to rising uncertainty. “The tariff tax hike and restrictive monetary policy are clearly weighing on labor demand,” noted Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics. Notably, when removing healthcare and education, private payrolls increased by just 23,000, well below the 12-month average.
The labor force participation rate declined, and the Black unemployment rate surged to 6.8%, its highest since January 2022, a worrying trend economists are watching closely.
Federal layoffs and budget cuts have also sent many public servants job-hunting. Job fairs, such as one hosted by Cook County in Chicago, have seen increased attendance from displaced workers.
Despite the growing unease, layoff data remains steady. First-time unemployment claims fell to 233,000 in the last week of June. However, continuing claims reflecting those receiving benefits for multiple weeks remain near three-and-a-half-year highs, suggesting jobseekers face increasing difficulty in re-entering the workforce.
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As Trump’s economic policies evolve, including the scope of tariffs and cuts, analysts warn that business hiring confidence could continue to dip — adding pressure on an already strained labor market.
