Pakistan’s inflation expected to remain above 28.5% in FY23, despite the global financial crisis.

Web DeskJune 9, 20235373 min

The Economic Survey 2022-23 stated that inflation predictions have been increased upwards and would remain at 28.5-29.0 percent, compared to the objective of 11.5 percent for the current fiscal year.

According to the poll, global inflationary pressures have increased in recent years, while the global supply chain has showed no improvement in recent months. The prognosis for international commodity prices is positive, which may counterbalance the negative impact of currency depreciation.

Furthermore, the improved crop outlook as a result of timely initiatives such as the Kissan Package, predicted political stability, and a stable currency rate would all contribute to price stability. The inflation rate is likely to normalise in the medium term as the agricultural sector improves and the global and local environments improve.

Also Read: Weekly Inflation remains above 48% for the second week in a row.

The headline inflation rate, as measured by CPI increase, is 28.2 percent for the July-April fiscal year 2023, compared to 11 percent for the same period last year. The increase in inflation was broad-based, with all sectors except communication services experiencing higher inflation.

Across product categories, inflation for transportation, given its direct link to fuel prices, registered a sharp increase of 52.8 percent as against 19.4 percent during July-April fiscal year 2022.

Similarly, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 13.6 percent compared to 11.0 percent in the same period previous year. The rise in domestic energy prices was attributable to increased global oil prices, currency depreciation, and energy tariff/petroleum levy adjustments.

Inflationary pressures have continued during the first 10 months of the current fiscal year.

It is the 18th straight month of double-digit inflation since November 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April 2023 was 36.4 percent year on year (YoY), up from 35.4 percent the previous month and 13.4 percent in April 2022. CPI inflation averaged 28.2 percent from July to April FY2023, compared to 11.0 percent in the same period last year.

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