Today, an imminent increase in petrol and High-Speed Diesel (HSD) prices looms despite the international oil market’s relatively muted response to Iran’s recent strike on Israel.

The anticipated adjustment by the new federal government is expected to see petrol prices climb by Rs. 2.5 per liter and HSD by Rs. 8.5 per liter, effective April 15, 2024. This potential hike would mark the second consecutive increase during the tenure of the coalition government.

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The projection stems from fluctuations in international prices for HSD, petrol, and crude oil, particularly notable in the first week of April. Interestingly, the Pakistani rupee has maintained stability around 278-279 against the dollar over the past fortnight.

During early April, global prices for petrol and HSD surged by approximately $4 and $4.50 per barrel, respectively. This surge is expected to translate to a retail price of Rs. 291.91 per liter for petrol.

Conversely, while international HSD prices surged, Pakistan State Oil’s import premium remained steady at $6.50 per barrel. Consequently, it is anticipated that HSD prices in Pakistan will rise to Rs. 294.06 per liter.

Globally, the Brent crude futures market and other physical markets across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa indicate tighter supply dynamics, with prices hovering between $80-90 per barrel. This trend is attributed partly to shipping delays in the region in recent months.