The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP) has released its 2024 Economic and Social Survey for the Asia-Pacific region, projecting accelerated economic growth and a significant reduction in inflation for Pakistan. These projections align with recent assessments made by other international financial institutions like the World Bank.
According to the UN survey, Pakistan’s real GDP growth is forecasted to be 2% in the current fiscal year and 2.3% in the next fiscal year. Despite facing political unrest and disruptions in agricultural production due to a massive flood, Pakistan has sought external assistance to address fiscal pressures, including securing an IMF agreement in mid-2023 and receiving support from bilateral partners such as China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
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The survey anticipates that Pakistan’s economic growth will accelerate in the current fiscal year, with the real growth rate expected to increase by more than 2% in the next fiscal year. Furthermore, it predicts a significant decrease in the inflation rate from the current 26% to 12.2% in the next fiscal year.
UN-ESCAP highlights that while tax levels in countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are low, the tax gaps are moderate, suggesting that improvements in tax policies and administration alone may not suffice to bridge the development financing gaps. It emphasizes the need for overall improvements in socioeconomic development and public governance to enhance tax revenue.Earlier assessments by the World Bank and reports from Bloomberg have also indicated positive signs of economic stability in Pakistan, with expectations of increasing GDP growth rates and declining inflation rates.
Regarding the broader Asia-Pacific region, the UN survey emphasizes the importance for developing countries to have adequate and long-term resources, urging them to prioritize between paying off expensive debts or investing in education, health, and social improvements for their people.
