An asteroid once feared to pose the highest known threat to Earth has re-entered scientific focus, though now for its potential collision with the moon. Newly updated estimates from NASA suggest asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4.3% chance of impacting the lunar surface on December 22, 2032 — a slight increase from the previous 3.8%.
NASA emphasized that impact probabilities can fluctuate with incoming observational data and that even a direct hit would not affect the moon’s orbit. “These changes are routine as data comes in,” the agency stated, downplaying any immediate concern.
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Measuring up to 67 metres in length, 2024 YR4 was first discovered in late December 2024. It briefly reappeared in May 2025 when the James Webb Space Telescope captured new data, allowing a Johns Hopkins-led team to improve its predicted trajectory by 20%, according to Space.com.
The asteroid had initially alarmed experts after early estimates showed a greater than 1% chance of hitting Earth, later peaking at 3.1% by early 2025. Had it struck, NASA simulations projected regional-scale impacts — especially across parts of the Pacific, South America, and Asia — but a direct hit was eventually ruled out in February.
As focus turns to the moon, scientists remain unconcerned. “A collision with the moon is not a cause for concern,” said Dr Pawan Kumar, a former astrophysicist at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. Any debris from such an impact would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, causing no harm.
