Scientists have raised alarms that the spreading bird flu virus could trigger a pandemic worse than COVID-19 if it mutates to transmit between humans. The highly pathogenic avian influenza has already caused the culling of hundreds of millions of birds, disrupting food supplies and increasing prices.
Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director at France’s Institut Pasteur respiratory infections centre, said, “What we fear is the virus adapting to mammals, particularly humans, becoming capable of human-to-human transmission. That virus could cause a pandemic worse than COVID-19.”
Unlike seasonal flu strains H1 and H3, people have no antibodies against H5 bird flu. Rameix-Welti added that flu viruses can severely affect healthy individuals, including children, making a potential pandemic worse than the one experienced during COVID-19.
There have been several human cases of H5 bird flu viruses, primarily linked to close contact with infected animals. A first-ever H5N5 human infection appeared in Washington state this month, resulting in the patient’s death. Between 2003 and 2025, nearly 1,000 human outbreaks were reported in countries including Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with nearly half of those affected dying, according to the WHO.
Despite these risks, experts say the probability of a human pandemic remains low. Gregorio Torres, head of the Science Department at the World Organisation for Animal Health, stated, “For now, people can continue normal activities. The risk is a possibility, but probability remains low.”
Rameix-Welti emphasized that the world is better prepared than before COVID-19. Vaccine candidates are ready, antivirals are in stock, and global monitoring systems have improved. “If bird flu adapts to human transmission, preventive measures are in place, making a pandemic worse more manageable than it would have been previously,” she said.
Scientists continue to monitor bird flu closely to prevent any mutation that could lead to human-to-human transmission, stressing the importance of preparedness and early response to avoid a global health crisis.
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