President Donald Trump has signaled a possible end to the war with Iran, even without a formal deal. Analysts warn that this approach could inadvertently break Iran’s position in the Middle East.
Ending the conflict prematurely may leave Tehran stronger. Surviving U.S. and Israeli strikes could embolden Iran to assert control over energy routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil passage, remains a critical leverage point. Experts fear that without guarantees, Gulf states would bear the consequences.
Trump stated in a recent speech that the U.S. is “on track to complete all military objectives shortly.” He also hinted at more strikes if Iran does not comply with U.S. demands. Attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure remain possible, raising concerns among regional partners.
Analysts highlight that a sudden end to the war might break Iran in perception but not in reality. Tehran has a long record of resilience and layered institutions that allow it to recover from attacks. Gulf nations worry that Iran could exploit any U.S. withdrawal to increase its influence.
Mohammed Baharoon, director of Dubai’s B’huth Research Center, said the key risk is ending the war without a clear outcome. “He might stop the war, but that doesn’t mean Iran will,” he noted. Tehran could threaten shipping lanes and energy flows, leaving Gulf countries to absorb strategic and economic costs.
The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei early in the conflict was meant to weaken Iran. Instead, it strengthened the regime, giving hardliners more legitimacy. Analysts say this move may radicalize Iran further, making it more defiant rather than broken.
By threatening energy infrastructure and global oil supplies, Iran has already demonstrated its ability to exert pressure. A premature end to the war risks leaving Tehran with enhanced leverage while Gulf states remain exposed.
Experts warn that any U.S. exit without security guarantees could break Iran only superficially, leaving it capable of retaliation far beyond the Middle East. The theocratic system may endure, making Iran more dangerous than before.
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