Pakistan’s GDP growth for the fiscal year ended June 2026 has been revised down to 3.65% from 3.70%. Official data released on Monday showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity during the final quarter.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) announced the revised figures at a meeting held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) headquarters in Islamabad. The committee also revised the previous fiscal year’s growth estimate.

Pakistan’s economy expanded by just 2% in the fourth quarter of FY2025-26. This was significantly lower than the 6.07% growth recorded during the same period a year earlier.

A sharp contraction in industrial activity contributed to the slowdown. Electricity, gas and water supply recorded a particularly steep decline during the quarter.

Pakistan’s Economic Growth Slows in Final Quarter

The revised GDP growth figures show different trends across the country’s main economic sectors. Agriculture performed better than initially estimated, while industry and services recorded downward revisions.

Agriculture grew by 3.50% in FY2025-26, compared with the earlier estimate of 2.89%. Industrial growth was revised down to 3.34% from 3.51%.

Services growth also declined from the previous estimate of 4.09% to 3.81%. These revisions reflect changes in updated sectoral data and annual economic benchmarks.

Quarterly figures showed stronger growth during the first three quarters. The economy expanded by 3.89% in the first quarter, 4.31% in the second and 4.42% in the third.

The first-quarter estimate was slightly reduced from 3.92%. However, second-quarter growth increased from 4.05%, while third-quarter growth rose from 3.99%.

The sharp decline in the final quarter reduced Pakistan’s overall annual GDP growth. Industrial weakness remained the main factor behind the slowdown.

Pakistan’s Economy Reaches $450.4 Billion

Pakistan’s economy was valued at Rs126.4 trillion, equivalent to $450.4 billion, during FY2025-26. In the previous fiscal year, its estimated value stood at Rs114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion.

Per capita income reached Rs531,897, equivalent to approximately $1,896. These figures reflect the revised national accounts estimates approved by the NAC.

The committee also revised Pakistan’s GDP growth for FY2024-25. The estimate was reduced from 3.18% to 3.11%.

Agricultural growth for that year was revised down to 1.32% from 1.53%. Industrial growth declined slightly to 5.46% from 5.56%.

Services growth was also adjusted marginally, falling from 3.14% to 3.13%.

Agriculture Supports Annual GDP Growth

Agriculture recorded stronger growth than previously expected during FY2025-26. The revised estimate increased to 3.50% from 2.89%.

Improved production of important crops and other agricultural products supported the increase. Growth in important crops reached 1.59%, compared with the earlier estimate of 0.65%.

Other crops recorded growth of 4.28%, up from the previous estimate of 2.43%. Higher production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder contributed to the improvement.

Pulse production increased by 6.3%, while oilseed production rose by 5.4%. Tomato production grew by 44%, and fruit output increased by 1.3%.

Livestock growth edged down slightly to 3.71%. Forestry expanded by 10.80%, while fishing recorded growth of 1.39%.

Agriculture also performed strongly during the fourth quarter. The sector expanded by 3.71%, compared with 0.58% during the same period last year.

Industrial Growth Faces Major Challenges

Industrial growth was revised down to 3.34% for FY2025-26. The earlier estimate had placed growth at 3.51%.

Mining and quarrying performed better than initially expected. The sector recorded growth of 1.52%, compared with the previous estimate of 0.38%.

Large-scale manufacturing growth was revised down to 5.01% from 6.11%. Several industries reported increases, including automotive, transport equipment, furniture and electrical equipment.

However, some industries recorded declines. Pharmaceutical products fell by 8.87%, while iron and steel products declined by 7.84%.

Electricity, gas and water supply remained a major concern. The sector contracted by 10.24% during the fiscal year.

In the fourth quarter, its output fell by 33.19%. The NAC attributed the decline to lower subsidies, a high deflator and a significant base effect.

Industry contracted by 4.70% during the final quarter. This contrasted sharply with the 20% growth recorded in the same quarter a year earlier.

Services Sector Records Mixed Performance

Services growth was revised down to 3.81% from 4.09%. However, several subsectors continued to expand during the fiscal year.

Information and communication grew by 9.53%. Financial and insurance activities recorded growth of 4.23%, while transport and storage expanded by 3.23%.

Construction growth was revised upward to 6.30% from 5.73%. The committee linked the improvement to higher public-sector construction spending.

Wholesale and retail trade growth, however, declined to 2.37% from 3.71%. The committee attributed the reduction to weaker manufacturing activity and lower imports.

During the fourth quarter, services expanded by 3.62%. Information and communication recorded particularly strong growth of 15.03%.

Economic Outlook Remains Under Focus

The revised figures highlight the difference between Pakistan’s annual economic expansion and its weaker final-quarter performance. Agriculture and several service industries supported growth, but industrial weakness limited overall progress.

The latest GDP growth estimates were approved by the National Accounts Committee after reviewing updated data. The revisions incorporated changes in imports, sectoral indicators and annual benchmarks.

The committee also acknowledged the work of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and other government institutions. These included the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s GDP growth remains an important indicator of economic performance. The latest figures show that sustaining industrial activity will be important for stronger and more balanced growth in the coming fiscal year.

In other news read more about: World Bank Revises Pakistan’s GDP Growth Forecast to 2.8% for FY 2024-25