By Dr. Syed Hassaan Bokhari
Uzair Younus (the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Councilβs South Asia Center) has recently written an article titled, βWhy Pakistan must side with Ukraine over Russiaβ. In this article, Mr. Younus declares that βit is in Pakistanβs national security interest to stand with Ukraineβ. The chief arguments put forward by Mr. Younus are as follows:
- If Putinβs illegal invasion of Ukraine results in a successful change of borders by force, then it will set a worrisome precedent for Pakistan as another power (read India) can also trample Pakistanβs territorial integrity and force a change of borders.
- By siding with Ukraine, Pakistan will earn the goodwill of Ukraineβs supporters like the Western countries and Japan. In his opinion, by supporting Ukraine wholeheartedly and helping βavert Putinβs victoryβ, Pakistan will be seen as an upholder of international norms. So, if Pakistan faces a challenge similar to Ukraine in the future, it will be able to βrally the world to its cause based on its own past conductβ.
- For Pakistan, Russia isnβt an important strategic or trade partner. Pakistanβs exports mostly go to the USA and EU. So, instead of staying neutral, Pakistan should side with its trade partners.
On the surface, these arguments might appear cogent, but if examined a little more closely and deeply, they are found not only to be shallow but also downright dangerous for Pakistan. Letβs take these arguments one by one.
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First, Mr. Younus has very conveniently ignored Pakistanβs own history regarding forcible change of borders. In 1971, India invaded and tore apart East Pakistan, cutting Pakistan in half. India also occupied some territory in Pakistan Administered Kashmir and refused to return it to Pakistan after the 1971 war. Pakistanβs βsacrosanct and internationally recognizedβ borders underwent a more radical change than Ukraineβs in 1971. At that time, Pakistan had been the key facilitator of the momentous US-Chine dΓ©tente and consequently was viewed favorably by both the US and China β an enviable position diplomatically. But, as history tells us, on-ground military force trumps diplomacy. Also, in case of an Indian threat to Pakistan (most likely in Kashmir), India can take the line that the LOC is not an international border. The West, already wooing India, will be more amenable to accepting Indian explanations. After all, even in 1971, no meaningful Western support was witnessed during the Indian invasion of East Pakistan and Kashmir.
This brings us to Mr. Younusβs second argument. Does he really believe that a poor country like Pakistan will ever be able to βrally the world to its causeβ when attacked by India? Letβs face some hard truths. Ukraine is not being supported by the West because it is a victim of aggression. It is only being supported because it is the victim of Russian aggression. Russia is not the only country illegally occupying vast tracts of territory. Israel has been occupying and colonizing the West Bank for decades. India has been occupying Kashmir and oppressing the populace with impunity for many decades. The USA itself lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before tearing that country to shreds. So, the key point is not aggression per se but aggression by a country considered an enemy by the West. If Pakistan is ever attacked by Russia, the USA will be ready with support in order to bleed Russia dry regardless of the Pakistani stance on Ukraine. But India is a different story altogether. India is not a US ally, it is a country being courted by the US into becoming an ally! That arguably gives India more leverage over the US than even an ally! So, it is my painful duty to inform Mr. Younus that even if Pakistan bleeds itself dry in Ukraine, the West wonβt do much more than mere lip service (if even that) in case Pakistan is ever attacked by India. After all, how much support did Pakistan, a member of military alliances (SEATO/CENTO) with the West, receive from the West during the 1965 war? As for Mr. Younusβs suggestion for Pakistan to βhelp avert Putinβs victoryβ, I can only say that how can a country suffering the worst economic crisis in history and facing myriad security threats of his own βavert Putinβs victoryβ? With a limited industrial capacity and a large home defense requirement, I doubt Pakistan can do more for Ukraine than what it is already doing.
Mr. Younusβs third argument about Russia not being a significant trade or strategic partner for Pakistan is also quite fallacious. A little context is required here. How is Russia managing to stay afloat despite crippling military and economic losses in Ukraine? The largest factor is Chinese support. China is backing Russia as a bulwark against the West. China is also the major arms supplier of Pakistan. Almost all the sophisticated military technology Pakistan possesses is of Chinese origin, the sort of technology that the West has always refused to share with Pakistan despite Pakistan fighting vigorously for the West during the Cold War and the War on Terror. China is also the leading foreign investor in Pakistan. Can Pakistan really afford to signal to China that it is not a reliable partner for China in the evolving multi-polar world? As for Pakistani exports to the EU/USA, they havenβt expressed the slightest inclination to boycott Pakistan for its βneutralityβ over Ukraine. A poor, beleaguered, and threatened Pakistan canβt afford any enemies, be it the West or Russia/China. But Pakistanβs bond with China is such that contrary to the West (which has always preferred India over Pakistan for strategic and economic reasons), Pakistan cannot even afford Chinese indifference toward Pakistan.
In summation, Pakistan shouldnβt side with anyone in the Ukraine conflict and avoid aggravating all the parties to the conflict as well as their allies. Pakistan must only focus on putting its own house in order, which seems to be crumbling as rampant inflation causes a ballooning poverty rate, as 20 million children remain out of school, and 40% of Pakistani children experience stunted growth due to malnutrition. Mr. Younus says, βStaying neutral in the current context is folly. It risks Pakistanβs own security and sovereignty in the long runβ. On the contrary, I think putting our belief into a security βinsurance underwritten by the Westβ is folly and risks Pakistanβs own security and sovereignty in the long run. If Pakistan wants to safeguard its security and sovereignty, it must learn to throw away the begging bowl and rely on itself. Painful structural reforms carried out by a government elected by a people via free and fair elections is the only way for Pakistan to save itself. All other recipes are peddled by those charlatans who only want to sell some snake oil!
Mr. Younus ended his article by saying, βPakistanβs elites must look at the evolving global situation pragmatically and recognize that a strong Ukraine that defeats Russia is in their countryβs interest.β I will amend it by saying, βPakistanβs elites must look at the evolving global situation pragmatically and recognize that a strong Pakistan that defeats poverty, undemocratic forces, and a psychological urge to prostrate itself to a would-be protector is in their countryβs interest!βΒ