EVEN THOUGH the issue of elections dominates practically every political discussion in the country these days, the chances appear to be stacked against polls being held anytime soon, as the incumbent government nears the end of its mandate.
The executive appears to be using its final days in power to ram legislation and development projects through, and with the passage of a contentious amendment expanding the powers of the caretaker government, the likelihood of elections taking place within the 60 or 90-day period appears to be dwindling.
According to Article 224(2), in the event of an early dissolution, the Election Commission of Pakistan is required to convene general elections within ninety days after the dissolution
The country will enter “dangerous territory” if the elections are postponed, according to President of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) Ahmad Bilal Mahboob.
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Mr Mahboob questions the necessity to empower the caretaker arrangement, which has a constitutionally limited tenure of either 60 or 90 days, pointing out that interim governments already have the authority to make emergency decisions.
He believes that the new provision makes it possible for the caretaker setup’s duration to be prolonged as needed.
According to him, the PML-N’s initiative appears to have the approval of the establishment, but other friends, such as the PPP, may have been left out of the loop.
He believes that floatation of PML-N stalwart Ishaq Dar’s name for temporary prime minister could be an indication that elections will not be held within 60 or 90 days.
“In the event that the elections are postponed, the PML-N wants to have a man in the saddle, and it has revealed its hand by proposing the name of Mr Dar,” he says.
Whatever the case may be, it is clear that naming Mr Dar as a possible interim Prime Minister has backfired.
Rana Sanaullah was the most recent to do so, claiming in a television interview on Friday that Mr Dar’s name was “neither suggested nor rejected.”
Hasan Askari Rizvi, a noted political scientist and former caretaker chief minister in Punjab, questions the ‘purity’ of the goals for empowering the caretaker setup, claiming that delaying the polls would be a breach of the Constitution.
“The caretakers’ job is to hold elections in 60 or 90 days, not to sign new international treaties.” Rather, no international organization is interested in reaching an agreement with a caretaker government anywhere in the world.”
He contends that, if elections are to be place within 60 or 90 days, there appears to be no need for such an amendment. However, it appears that its passage was done to maintain options open in case the elections do not produce the “desired results.”
According to Dr. Rizvi, the ruling party and the military establishment appear to be on the same page on this piece of legislation.
“Several options are currently being considered, and the decision on whether to hold elections or not will be made in mid-August,” he forecasts.
Indeed, party spokeswoman Raoof Hassan claims that the establishment and government want to have more than one option if things do not go their way and Mr Khan is not restrained ahead of the elections.
“They can use the poor economy as an excuse to postpone the elections,” he argues. He is, nevertheless, fairly enthusiastic about the upcoming change of the guard at the Supreme Court.
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“They [the powers that be] are also waiting for a change of command in the Supreme Court, but I have a feeling that Justice Qazi Faiz Essa will give them a shock,” Mr Hasan says when asked to explain his optimism.
While neither PPP or PML-N leaders were ready to talk on the record, a source close to the Sharif family indicated that polls will only be held “once Imran Khan is imprisoned.”
“An understanding was reached between the Sharifs and the establishment, and the amendment is the result of that,” the insider explained.
However, it is the PML-N’s seeming proximity to the powers that be that makes the PPP uneasy, even if they refuse to confess it out loud.
Observers believe that the intensity of the party’s reaction to the flotation of Ishaq Dar’s name as a candidate for interim Prime Minister reflects their concerns.
Insiders said Nawaz Sharif is fine with the polls being delayed as long as they have someone ‘trustworthy’ in charge during the transition phase.
When questioned if the party is waiting for Imran Khan to be imprisoned before calling elections, PM’s advisor and PML-N leader Attaullah Tarar told Dawn that the cases against Imran Khan have nothing to do with the elections.
“Each case has its own merits and procedures to follow… and each has its own completion timeline.” PTI is employing delay tactics based on technicality, which is to their disadvantage.”
