The 2025 monsoon forecast for South Asia, released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), presents a varied picture for Pakistan, with northern and northeastern areas expected to receive significantly more rain than southern regions.
Cities such as Islamabad, Peshawar, and Faisalabad are forecast to experience moderate to heavy rainfall between June and September. Islamabad may receive up to 893 mm of rain, while Peshawar and Faisalabad could see around 202 mm and 326 mm respectively. In contrast, areas like Nawabshah and parts of southwest Balochistan are expected to receive far less, with totals near 165 mm.
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The overall distribution indicates that most regions in Pakistan will see rainfall ranging from 100 to 500 mm, with the northeast likely to receive between 500 to 1,000 mm. Compared to historical averages, this suggests normal to slightly above normal rainfall in key northern and northeastern zones.
July is projected to be the peak month for precipitation, while August and September will see a gradual decline in rainfall intensity, although totals will still remain substantial in many northern and central districts.
The forecast underscores the importance of early preparedness, particularly for flood-prone areas in the north, while water-scarce regions in the south may continue to face challenges.
