Deep within Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, scientists are conducting a bold experiment to understand the long-term effects of climate change. Using hundreds of transparent plastic panels, they are deliberately cutting rainfall in one hectare of forest by half. The goal is to study how trees and soil respond to extreme droughts predicted by climate change models.
The project, known as Seca Limite (Limit Drought), is located in Querencia, near the southeastern edge of the Amazon. It uses elevated timber gutters to redirect rainwater away from the test area. Researchers monitor 61 trees daily, tracking sap flow, respiration, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. “It’s like taking the pulse of the forest every day,” said David Galbraith, a professor at the University of Leeds and one of the project’s lead scientists.
Experts warn that climate change, deforestation, and wildfires are pushing the Amazon toward a tipping point. Once crossed, vast areas could turn into savanna-like landscapes, drastically reducing biodiversity and increasing global carbon emissions. Scientists fear that this transformation could speed up global warming by releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
In recent years, the Amazon has suffered several severe droughts, leading to record wildfires. A 2024 World Meteorological Organization report revealed the highest spike in carbon dioxide levels since records began, largely due to forest fires and the reduced capacity of drought-stricken regions to absorb carbon.
Researchers like Ben Hur and Beatriz Marimon have studied forest plots in this region since the 1990s. Their data show that the southeastern Amazon has the highest rate of tree mortality. “These old trees are dying faster than ever before,” said Beatriz. “One extreme drought can make them vulnerable to diseases and pests.”
Despite the grim findings, scientists still see hope. Earlier studies suggest that forests may adapt over time by growing shorter trees with less canopy cover. However, they stress that human activities like large-scale farming and deforestation pose an even greater immediate threat.
“People talk about a climate tipping point,” Beatriz added. “But the real danger may be the human tipping point — the bulldozers clearing the land.”
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