NEW DELHI: India’s embattled Congress party won big in a southern state election this weekend, exceeding expectations and gaining new momentum ahead of national elections next year against entrenched Prime Minister Narendra Modi, top politicians and analysts said.
At the same time, they warned that the Congress’ victory in Karnataka state, which is home to the thriving tech hub of Bengaluru, was largely due to local factors.
They predicted that Modi’s popular strongman image and Hindu polarisation strategy would propel his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to victory in upcoming elections in heartland states and nationally.
However, for the beleaguered opposition party, which won less than 10% of the 545 seats in the lower house of parliament in 2019, the victory provides a foothold to re-establish itself as a political force to be reckoned with in the world’s largest democracy.
“This is an opportunity for the Congress to improve state efficiencies in Karnataka, to build a new governance model, and to showcase it to the country,” said Prithvi Datta Chandra Shobhi, a political commentator and professor at Krea University in southern India.
In the short term, he added, “These results have no bearing on the 2024 elections; they don’t help us predict what might happen in Karnataka or nationally in terms of Congress’ chances.”
The Congress Party, which performed poorly in Saturday’s municipal elections in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh in the north, where the BJP won all 17 mayoral seats, will face elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh later this year.
Among its many challenges, analysts say, are resolving internal rivalries, marketing its platform of welfare economics, forging strategic alliances with India’s plethora of regional parties, and countering Modi and the BJP’s strong messaging power.
The Congress Party ruled India for 54 of the 75 years since its independence from Britain, but it is now at its weakest since Modi took national power in 2014.
Since December 2018, the party has won just one state election, succumbing to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, the government’s generous social spending, Modi’s popularity, and its own leadership vacuum.
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