NASA scientists have updated their observations regarding the “city-killer” asteroid 2024 YR4, originally thought to be on a collision course with Earth.
The asteroid, discovered last year, was initially feared to have a 3% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, which could cause devastation within an 80-kilometre radius. However, further tracking has ruled out an Earth impact, lowering the risk to almost zero.
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New data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope now indicates a nearly 4% chance that the asteroid could impact the Moon instead, though the likelihood of a hit remains low, with over 96% probability of it missing. The asteroid’s size has also been revised to between 53 and 67 meters—comparable to a 15-story building—highlighting the potential scale of a lunar impact.
While the probability of a Moon impact is small, scientists are using the situation to refine planetary defense strategies. NASA is focused on using a possible lunar impact as a scientific opportunity to improve asteroid defense, with plans for further tracking in 2026.
This event could provide valuable insights for future asteroid threats, as advanced tracking systems are expected to identify more potential impacts in the coming years.
