The French military intelligence directorate (DRM) has stated that the explosion at Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza was likely not caused by an Israeli missile strike but rather by a misfiring Palestinian rocket. The DRM’s analysis pointed to the impact crater being too small for an Israeli missile, and it suggested that a Palestinian rocket with a 5-kilogram explosive charge was the most probable cause. This information was released in response to contrasting accounts about the incident, where Palestinian officials blamed an Israeli airstrike, while Israel attributed it to a failed rocket launch by militants.
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An unclassified US intelligence report, seen by Reuters, estimated the death toll at 100-300 people and also concluded that Israel was not responsible for the blast. The DRM’s analysis considered various possibilities and ruled out fragments from Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system or intercepted missiles as the cause. It was based on open-source material, including the extent of structural damage at the hospital, such as some broken windows and few destroyed vehicles, as well as the relatively limited presence of civilian belongings at the blast site.
The DRM did not specify the exact point of origin of the failed rocket and did not assign blame to any specific group. While it did not estimate the exact death toll, it suggested that it was likely to be lower than the initially reported 471 casualties.
In response to the October 7 attack by Hamas gunmen that killed 1,400 Israelis, Israel has vowed to destroy the group, leading to a siege on Gaza and a significant number of casualties. Strikes against the enclave have resulted in the deaths of over 4,100 people and left more than a million homeless.
