Khan Could Become the UK’s Most Common Newborn Surname by 2027
The surname Khan could overtake Smith as the most common surname among newborn babies in England and Wales by 2027. The projection reflects changing birth patterns and the country’s evolving population.
According to the reported Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, Smith remained in first place in 2025. A total of 4,102 newborns were registered with the surname Smith, compared with 3,772 babies named Khan.
The difference was just 330 registrations. If the reported trends continue, Khan could move into the top position within the next two years.
However, this remains a projection rather than a confirmed outcome. Future rankings will depend on the number of births and surname registrations.
Smith and Khan See Different Trends
The reported figures show a long-term decline in registrations of traditional British surnames. Smith registrations reportedly fell by an average of 4% annually, while Khan registrations increased by around 1.9% each year.
These trends have narrowed the gap between the two surnames. Smith has held the leading position for decades, but its numbers have declined considerably.
Compared with 1996, registrations of Smith reportedly fell by 44% in 2025. Other established surnames also recorded significant decreases.
The reported data shows a 43% decline for Jones and a 41% fall for Williams over the same period.
These figures highlight changes in the surnames appearing on newborn registrations across England and Wales.
More Surnames Enter the Top Rankings
The changes extend beyond Khan. By 2025, surnames including Ahmed, Singh and Hussain had entered the top 10 newborn surname rankings.
Ibrahim also recorded a notable rise. It reportedly climbed from 563rd place in 1996 to 73rd in 2025.
The growing presence of these surnames reflects changes in the population and the communities represented in birth registrations. However, surname rankings alone cannot explain every factor behind these developments.
Researchers often consider migration patterns, differences in birth rates and the distribution of surnames across communities when examining demographic changes.
Changes in Births to UK-Born and Overseas-Born Mothers
The reported figures also point to changes in the birth patterns of mothers born in the UK and overseas.
Since 2008, births to UK-born mothers have reportedly declined by 29%. Meanwhile, births to mothers born outside the UK increased by 18%.
These shifts may influence the surnames recorded among newborn babies. However, they do not independently determine which surname will rank first.
The projected rise of Khan should therefore be understood within the wider context of changing demographics and birth registrations.
Muhammad Already Leads Boys’ First Names
A similar change has occurred in the rankings of first names. Muhammad became the most popular boys’ name in England and Wales in 2023, with more than 4,600 registrations.
It retained the leading position in 2024 and 2025, according to the supplied report.
Different rules apply when recording and ranking first names and surnames. Therefore, Muhammad’s popularity does not directly explain the projected rise of Khan.
Together, however, these trends show how the names most frequently recorded among newborns have changed over time.
What Could Happen by 2027?
Khan could become the most common surname among newborn babies in England and Wales by 2027 if the reported trends continue. Smith remained ahead in 2025, although the gap had narrowed considerably.
The projection is not a confirmed result, and future registration figures may change the rankings.
The reported figures underline broader demographic changes in England and Wales. Updated ONS data will be needed to determine whether Khan eventually overtakes Smith.
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