ISLAMABAD – The International Monetary Fund (IMF warns) that Pakistan’s ambitious export targets under the Uraan Pakistan initiative may be unrealistic, given current economic projections. The government aims to increase exports by $60 billion over the next five years. However, the IMF warns that actual growth is expected to be much lower.
According to the IMF, Pakistan’s total exports are projected to reach only $36.46 billion in the next fiscal year. Exports may rise gradually to $40 billion by 2027–28, $43 billion by 2028–29, and $46 billion by 2029–30. This forecast highlights a significant gap between government targets and global economic realities.
The IMF warns that imports are likely to outpace exports, with total imports expected to rise to $82.81 billion by 2030. Economists say this widening trade gap could put additional pressure on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves and current account balance.
Experts note that achieving the $60 billion target would require major structural reforms, export diversification, and consistent global demand. Without these changes, Pakistan risks further trade deficits and economic strain.
The IMF’s cautious outlook contrasts sharply with the government’s aggressive goals, raising questions about the feasibility of its export-led growth strategy. Policymakers are being urged to align ambitions with realistic economic projections.
Analysts also stress the importance of strengthening domestic industries, improving product quality, and expanding into new international markets. These steps are essential if Pakistan hopes to narrow the gap between official export targets and actual performance.
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While the Uraan Pakistan program is ambitious, the IMF warns that careful planning and structural reforms are critical. Otherwise, the country may face renewed challenges in balancing trade and sustaining economic growth in the coming years.
