LONDON – Oil rises on Thursday by around 3% as market concerns grow over a fragile Middle East ceasefire and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures increased $2.69, or 3.1%, to $97.71 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.99, or 3.2%, to $97.40 per barrel.
Both benchmarks had fallen below $100 per barrel in the previous session. WTI recorded its largest decline since April 2020 amid optimism that the ceasefire would allow the reopening of the strait. However, analysts remain cautious, warning that geopolitical risks are still high and oil flows uncertain.
“The chances of a meaningful reopening any time soon look dim,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. She added that futures markets are still under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, keeping prices volatile despite earlier declines.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway connecting Gulf producers, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, to global markets. It typically carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply. Any disruption in this region significantly affects global oil prices and shipping costs.
“Even if shipments resume, risks won’t disappear overnight,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club. Tankers may face mined waters and heightened military presence, driving insurance premiums and freight costs higher.
Recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and regional tensions involving Iran have cast doubt on the ceasefire’s viability. Iran has provided maps for ships to navigate mined waters safely, but shippers say they need clear terms before resuming transit through the strait.
Global companies, including Glencore and Taiwan’s CPC, are chartering tankers to secure Middle Eastern crude, highlighting the ongoing demand amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has reduced its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively.
In other news read more about Oil Rises On Supply Concerns Amid Iran-U.S. Tensions
With ongoing Middle East tensions, oil rises are expected to continue as traders monitor security, shipping risks, and geopolitical developments. Investors remain alert to how these factors may impact global energy markets in the coming weeks.
