Global analysts are observing signs of steady recovery in Pakistan’s economy, and S&P Projects show positive trends for the coming years. The latest forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence align closely with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projections, signaling strengthening growth and stable inflation.
According to Finance Minister’s Adviser Khurram Schehzad, S&P Projects validate the SBP’s macroeconomic assessment. Inflation is expected to average 5.1% in 2026 and rise modestly to 5.6% in 2027. These estimates are well within the SBP’s forecast range of 5%–7%, indicating that price pressures remain contained.
On the external front, S&P Projects Pakistan’s current account deficit at 0.5% of GDP in 2026, widening slightly to 1.3% in 2027. The SBP expects the deficit to stay between 0% and 1% of GDP in FY26. Analysts say these numbers reflect improving external stability and cautious optimism in financial markets.
The positive outlook comes after recent signals from the central bank. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed recently revised the FY26 GDP growth forecast to 3.75%–4.75%. He also projected that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves could reach a record $20.2 billion by the end of December 2026.
Experts note that S&P Projects and SBP assessments together highlight Pakistan’s gradual economic recovery. Strengthening growth, controlled inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit all point to improving economic stability.
Finance officials say these projections offer confidence to investors and market participants. They also reinforce the government’s policy focus on fiscal discipline, economic reforms, and support for key sectors.
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Overall, analysts believe Pakistan is on a steady path toward macroeconomic stability. The alignment between S&P Projects and SBP forecasts suggests that growth is accelerating while inflation remains manageable, offering a positive outlook for the country’s economy in the coming years.
