India Under : Extremist Nationalism, Economic Volatility, and Regional Destabilization

By Dr. S. S. Hasan Rasheed | 14 – 05 – 2025

At the core of this transformation lies the consolidation of power by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), operating in ideological tandem with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)—a paramilitary-inspired cultural organization whose vision of India centers on Hindu supremacy. What began as a promise of governance reform has mutated into a systematic undermining of India’s pluralistic foundations. Legislative actions such as the unilateral abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) have not only triggered nationwide protests but have also drawn rebuke from global human rights institutions, UN bodies, and international legal experts Parallel to these developments, the rise in hate crimes, vigilantism, suppression of dissent, and weaponization of state institutions has eroded India’s democratic credentials, placing it on a trajectory of democratic regression, as reported by global indices like V-Dem and Freedom House.

Economically, the Modi era has been marked by volatility, populism, and policy incoherence. The 2016 demonetization—executed without warning—inflicted a massive shock on the informal economy, wiping out livelihoods and leading to a prolonged slowdown. The chaotic rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) further strained small and medium enterprises, while structural reforms have largely remained rhetorical. Despite headline GDP recoveries, underlying economic indicators—youth unemployment, rural indebtedness, declining labor force participation, and rising inequality—paint a grim picture. The COVID-19 crisis further exposed governance failures, with migrant workers abandoned during lockdowns, public health infrastructure overwhelmed, and economic relief poorly targeted. India’s ambition to become a global manufacturing and investment hub is undermined by institutional uncertainty, communal tensions, and a politicized regulatory environment.

Regionally, India’s strategic posture has shifted from cooperative leadership to coercive dominance. The government’s rhetoric of “Neighborhood First” is belied by strained or fractured ties with nearly all of its immediate neighbors. In Pakistan, the Kulbhushan Jadhav espionage case and India’s hybrid war allegations have reinforced longstanding security dilemmas. In Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, India’s heavy-handed diplomacy, border disputes, and unilateral actions have led to rising anti-India sentiment and diplomatic pushback. While India positions itself as a bulwark against terrorism and Chinese expansionism, its own actions—ranging from covert operations to economic blockades and intelligence interference—are increasingly perceived as destabilizing, particularly by those who view Modi’s regional policy as shaped more by ideological imperatives than strategic pragmatism.

This policy brief seeks to present a fact-based, critically balanced assessment of India’s domestic trajectory and foreign behavior under the Modi regime. Drawing on legal documentation, multilateral reports, investigative journalism, and regional narratives, it dissects how ideological extremism, economic fragility, and hegemonic ambitions are converging to reshape South Asia’s political and security order. With democratic backsliding at home and deteriorating trust abroad, India under Modi presents not just a national challenge, but a regional inflection point. It is imperative for South Asian stakeholders and the international community to re-engage on terms that promote inclusivity, uphold international law, and prioritize long-term regional stability over short-term geopolitical gain.

Hindu Nationalism and Domestic Policy Shifts

Ideological Background and Political Consolidation

The RSS’s vision of Hindu Rashtra has become central to BJP strategy under Modi. This ideological shift, while resonating with many voters, has sparked debates over India’s secular foundations and marginalized religious minorities through communal rhetoric and policies.

The Expanding Influence of the RSS

RSS influence now extends through cultural, educational, and media spheres. Educational curricula increasingly reflect Hindu nationalist narratives, while RSS-affiliated organizations promote Hindu supremacy through grassroots campaigns and media control.

Exclusionary Policies and the Marginalization of Minorities

The CAA offers citizenship to non-Muslim refugees while excluding Muslims, violating constitutional secularism. Combined with the NRC process, these policies disproportionately affect Indian Muslims, creating fears of disenfranchisement and statelessness.

Regional and Global Implications of Hindu Nationalism

Modi’s Hindu nationalism has intensified regional tensions, particularly with Pakistan over Kashmir’s Article 370 revocation. International scrutiny of India’s secular erosion and minority marginalization threatens its democratic reputation globally.

Key Legal and Policy Developments

1. Revocation of Article 370 (2019)

Kashmir’s special autonomy removal sparked widespread protests and international condemnation. The prolonged security lockdown, communication blackouts, and arbitrary detentions violated international human rights standards. The Supreme Court’s 2023 upholding raised concerns about judicial independence.

2. Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC)

The CAA’s religious discrimination sparked nationwide protests and UN criticism. Combined with NRC, it threatens to render Muslims stateless, intensifying religious polarization despite government claims of humanitarian intent.

3. Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and Sedition Laws

These laws increasingly stifle dissent and silence opposition. UAPA allows detention without trial, while colonial sedition laws target critics. This represents dangerous authoritarian drift, criminalizing dissent and shrinking democratic space.

4. Judicial and Media Trends

Judicial deference to executive decisions raises independence concerns. India’s press freedom ranking dropped from 140th (2014) to 161st (2023), reflecting increasing media harassment and government-aligned outlet dominance.

Societal Impact and Communal Tensions: Institutionalizing Majoritarianism

1. Delhi Riots (2020): A Failure of State Neutrality

CAA protests erupted into communal violence killing 53 people, predominantly Muslim. Police inaction and selective prosecutions demonstrated institutional bias and state neutrality erosion.

2. Mob Lynching and Cow Vigilantism: Vigilante Justice as a Political Tool

Since 2015, cow-related lynchings have predominantly targeted Muslims and Dalits. Political endorsement of perpetrators signals state approval of ideological enforcement through vigilante violence.

3. Anti-Conversion Laws: Codifying Religious Suspicion

BJP states enacted “Love Jihad” laws requiring state approval for religious conversion, primarily targeting Muslims. These laws violate religious freedom while legitimizing communal surveillance of interfaith relationships.

The Kulbhushan Jadhav Case: Legal, Diplomatic, and State-Sponsored Terrorism Implications

Background and Arrest

Pakistan arrested Jadhav (2016), accusing him of RAW espionage in Balochistan. India denied involvement, claiming wrongful detention from Iran. The case escalated into major diplomatic confrontation.

Legal Proceedings and ICJ Intervention

ICJ ruled (2019) Pakistan violated Vienna Convention by denying consular access, ordering conviction review. While legally favoring India, broader terrorism allegations remain unresolved.

State-Sponsored Terrorism and India’s Alleged Covert Operations

Pakistan alleges RAW supports Baloch separatists (BLA, BRA) to destabilize CPEC. Indian interference in Afghanistan allegedly used Afghan territory for anti-Pakistan operations, contributing to regional proxy warfare.

India’s Regional Policy and Allegations of Destabilization

India’s Regional Strategic Ambitions

Modi’s assertive “Neighborhood First” policy appears domineering to neighbors, who perceive imperialistic coercion undermining regional stability. This pushes smaller states toward China for strategic balance.

Destabilizing Actions: Covert Interference and Support for Separatism

Balochistan insurgency support and Afghanistan involvement fuel geopolitical instability. These proxy conflicts intensify rivalries and contribute to regional security deterioration.

Kashmir: The Dangerous Escalation of Conflict and Humanitarian Crisis

Article 370 revocation triggered military crackdowns and humanitarian crisis. Kashmir militarization perpetuates instability and increases India-Pakistan nuclear conflict risk.

Domestic Fallout: Erosion of Secularism and Growing Divisions

CAA and NRC sparked violent protests and sectarian tensions. Authoritarian suppression of dissent marginalizes minorities while India’s press freedom ranking sharply declined.

Pakistan’s Perspective: Allegations of Indian Interference, Subversion, and Destabilization

1. Support for Separatist Movements

Pakistan accuses RAW of supporting BLA and BRA in Balochistan, aiming to sabotage CPEC through funding, arms, and training via Afghanistan and Iran operations.

2. Espionage and Sabotage: The Kulbhushan Jadhav Case

Jadhav’s arrest represents tangible proof of alleged Indian “state-sponsored terrorism” according to Pakistan, despite India’s denial and ICJ ruling on consular access violations.

3. Alleged Funding of Proxies in Afghanistan

During NATO presence, Pakistan claims India supported TTP factions and separatists launching cross-border attacks, using diplomatic cover for espionage operations.

Regional Case Studies: Strategic Overreach and the Erosion of South Asian Stability

Sri Lanka: The LTTE Fallout and Strategic Miscalculation

Initial Tamil support evolved into IPKF intervention (1987-90) and LTTE retaliation (Rajiv Gandhi assassination), intensifying civil war and damaging India’s regional credibility.

Bangladesh: Strategic Ally or Overbearing Neighbor?

Teesta disputes and border killings stoke resentment. Perceived political interference pushes Bangladesh toward China and Gulf partnerships, eroding SAARC cohesion.

Nepal: From Partnership to Punitive Diplomacy

2015-16 blockade over constitution issues devastated earthquake-stricken economy, triggering Nepal’s strategic pivot to China through BRI participation.

Afghanistan: Soft Power or Proxy Conflict?

Extensive reconstruction efforts overshadowed by proxy conflict allegations. Taliban return marginalized India’s influence while reinforcing Pakistan’s suspicions.

Contextualizing India’s Regional Involvement: Rising Global Allegations of Covert Activities

China’s Accusations: Strategic Interests and Covert Operations

China alleges Indian support for Tibetan separatists and Xinjiang militants, plus proxy attacks on Chinese infrastructure. Strategic rivalry extends to diplomatic isolation efforts.

Global Concerns: Rising Allegations of Indian State-Sponsored Covert Activities

1. Canada and the 2023 Assassination Plot Allegations

Trudeau accused Indian diplomats in Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing, severely straining relations and raising extraterritorial operation concerns.

2. United States – U.S. Prosecution of Indian Agents (2023)

U.S. prosecutors allege Indian intelligence assassination plot against Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, complicating strategic partnership.

3. The United Kingdom and Australia: Growing Security Threats

Both countries report increased Indian surveillance and coercion of diaspora communities advocating for separatist movements.

International Condemnation and Crimes Against Humanity

Le Monde (2023) highlighted Modi’s “state-sponsored violence” during France’s Bastille Day, referencing 2002 Gujarat pogroms killing over 2,000 Muslims. Current violations include:

• Mass arrests under UAPA and sedition laws
• Mob lynchings with political cover
• Anti-conversion “Love Jihad” laws
• Kashmir military lockdown and mass detentions
• Pegasus surveillance of opposition and media
• NGO suppression and forced shutdowns
• CAA-NRC targeting Muslims
• Hate speech impunity fostering violence culture

Strategic Risk Dossier: Narendra Modi – A Populist Strongman Undermining South Asian Stability

Modi’s Personality Cult: Authoritarianism Wrapped in Electoral Legitimacy

Modi exhibits charismatic authoritarianism, paranoia, unilateralism, and image obsession. Combined with military control, this creates dangerous political logic where external conflict becomes domestic crisis escape valve.

The Nuclear Factor: Political Insecurity Meets Strategic Recklessness

India’s nuclear ambiguity regarding No First Use (NFU), BJP nuclear threats, and Modi’s electoral use of military spectacles normalize warfare as campaign strategy, raising escalation risks.

A Threat to Regional Peace: From Hegemony to Hostility

Relations with all neighbors deteriorated: Pakistan dialogue halted, China border clashes, Nepal blockades, Bangladesh tensions, Sri Lanka/Maldives pushback toward China.

Worst-Case Scenario: Strategic Desperation Triggering Catastrophe

Electoral defeat, economic collapse, or scandal could trigger military escalation for domestic rally—limited strikes, border incidents, or nuclear brinkmanship for image preservation.

What needs to be done for Security & Peace within the Region

Enabling Institutions and Regional Anchors

Reimagining SAARC as SAARC+: A Strategic Upgrade for South Asia

Transform SAARC into SAARC+ with new strategic anchors:

• China: Infrastructure co-financier aligning CPEC with Indo-Pak Economic Corridor (IPEC)
• Turkey: Diplomatic mediator leveraging neutrality for cultural reconciliation
• Malaysia: ESG governance champion promoting sustainable Islamic finance
• Saudi Arabia: Economic powerbroker providing sovereign wealth investments
• Russia: Multi-vector security partner ensuring regional equilibrium

Three Core Functions of SAARC+:

1. Geo-economic Engine: Green industrial hubs, smart trade corridors, digital infrastructure
2. Peace Infrastructure: Multi-tiered diplomacy, conflict prevention, confidence-building measures
3. Collective Resilience Platform: Climate adaptation, pandemic preparedness, cybersecurity

Role of Strategic Partners as Stabilizers & Catalysts

Each partner contributes specialized expertise: China (infrastructure/BRI), Turkey (mediation/culture), Malaysia (ESG/governance), Saudi Arabia (finance/energy), Russia (security/defense). Joint nuclear monitoring committee essential for preventing atomic war.

Conclusion

India’s nationalist trajectory has deepened regional instability and attracted international condemnation. Authoritarian domestic policies and coercive foreign policy risk alienating neighbors, diminishing soft power, and eroding global credibility. China’s growing influence in South Asia highlights risks to India’s traditional sphere.

Strategic recalibration toward inclusive domestic policies, multilateral cooperation, and diplomatic engagement over coercion is essential. Focus on dialogue, economic interdependence, and trust-building could reverse mistrust cycles and rebuild regional alliances. Without course correction, India faces irreversible decline in South Asian influence and global standing, potentially making the region a flashpoint for broader conflicts while undermining prospects for peace and shared prosperity.

References

1. Human Rights Abuses & Communal Violence

• Human Rights Watch. “Shoot the Traitors”: Discrimination Against Muslims under India’s New Citizenship Policy. April 2020. https://www.hrw.org
• Amnesty International. India 2022 Report. https://www.amnesty.org
• UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. “UN experts condemn ‘collective punishment’ in Kashmir.” 2019.
• Reporters Without Borders. World Press Freedom Index – India Rankings 2014–2023. https://rsf.org

2. Democratic Erosion and Authoritarian Shift

• V-Dem Institute. Democracy Reports (2021–2024): India as ‘Electoral Autocracy’. https://v-dem.net
• Freedom House. Freedom in the World Report: India’s Democratic Decline. https://freedomhouse.org

3. The Gujarat Riots and Modi’s Role

• Human Rights Watch. “We Have No Orders to Save You”: State Participation and Complicity in Communal Violence in Gujarat. April 2002.
• Citizens for Justice and Peace. Gujarat 2002 Case Documentation.
• Frontline (PBS). “The Rise of Modi.” (2020 Documentary)

4. Kashmir and Article 370

• BBC. “Inside Kashmir’s lockdown.” 2019.
• The Guardian. “Kashmir in crisis: Human rights, arrests, and media blackouts.” 2019–2023.
• UNHRC. Reports on the Human Rights Situation in Jammu & Kashmir. 2018 & 2019.

5. Regional Destabilization & Espionage

• International Court of Justice. India v. Pakistan (Kulbhushan Jadhav case). Judgment, July 17, 2019.
• Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Dossier on Indian Terrorism in Pakistan. November 2020.
• Al Jazeera Investigations. “RAW’s Shadow War in Balochistan.” 2021.

6. State-Sponsored Assassinations & Extraterritorial Operations

• Government of Canada. Statement by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s Killing. September 2023.
• U.S. Department of Justice. Indictment of Indian Agent in Assassination Plot (2023–24). https://justice.gov

7. India’s Foreign Policy and Regional Tensions

• Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Delhi.
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: South Asia Program.
• International Crisis Group. “South Asia’s Fragile Security Order.”

Additional Scholarly Sources

• Christophe Jaffrelot. “Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy.” Princeton University Press, 2021.
• Arundhati Roy. My Seditious Heart: Collected Nonfiction. Penguin, 2019.
• Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Various essays in The Indian Express and Foreign Affairs.
• Human Rights Watch. “Shoot the Traitors”: Discrimination Against Muslims under India’s New Citizenship Policy. April 2020. https://www.hrw.org
• Amnesty International. India 2022 Report. https://www.amnesty.org
• UN OHCHR. “UN experts condemn ‘collective punishment’ in Kashmir.” 2019.
• Reporters Without Borders. World Press Freedom Index – India Rankings 2014–2023. https://rsf.org
• V-Dem Institute. Democracy Reports (2021–2024): India as ‘Electoral Autocracy’. https://v-dem.net
• Freedom House. Freedom in the World Report: India’s Democratic Decline. https://freedomhouse.org
• Human Rights Watch. “We Have No Orders to Save You”: State Participation and Complicity in Communal Violence in Gujarat. April 2002.
• Citizens for Justice and Peace. Gujarat 2002 Case Documentation.
• Frontline (PBS). “The Rise of Modi.” 2020 Documentary.
• BBC. “Inside Kashmir’s lockdown.” 2019.
• The Guardian. “Kashmir in crisis: Human rights, arrests, and media blackouts.” 2019–2023.
• UNHRC. Reports on the Human Rights Situation in Jammu & Kashmir. 2018 & 2019.
• International Court of Justice. India v. Pakistan (Kulbhushan Jadhav case). Judgment, July 17, 2019.
• Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Dossier on Indian Terrorism in Pakistan. November 2020.
• Al Jazeera Investigations. “RAW’s Shadow War in Balochistan.” 2021.
• Government of Canada. Statement by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s Killing. September 2023.
• U.S. Department of Justice. Indictment of Indian Agent in Assassination Plot (2023–24). https://justice.gov
• Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Delhi.
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: South Asia Program.
• International Crisis Group. “South Asia’s Fragile Security Order.”
• Christophe Jaffrelot. Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy. Princeton University Press, 2021.
• Arundhati Roy. My Seditious Heart: Collected Nonfiction. Penguin, 2019.
• Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Essays in The Indian Express and Foreign Affairs.
• UNHRC. Reports on the Human Rights Situation in Jammu & Kashmir. 2018 & 2019.
• Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Dossier on Indian Terrorism in Pakistan. November 2020.
• Al Jazeera Investigations. “RAW’s Shadow War in Balochistan.” 2021.
• Government of Canada. Statement by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s Killing. September 2023.
• U.S. Department of Justice. Indictment of Indian Agent in Assassination Plot (2023–24). https://justice.gov
• Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Delhi.
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: South Asia Program.
• International Crisis Group. “South Asia’s Fragile Security Order.”
• Christophe Jaffrelot. Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy. Princeton University Press, 2021.
• Arundhati Roy. My Seditious Heart: Collected Nonfiction. Penguin, 2019.
• Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Essays in The Indian Express and Foreign Affairs.