ISLAMABAD, February 23, 2026 — Northern Pakistan is experiencing below-average rainfall and snowfall this winter, raising concerns over flood risks, including Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warned on Monday.
According to the PMD, stable weather patterns and prolonged clear skies have contributed to unusually high temperatures across Gilgit-Baltistan during the first three weeks of February. Daytime temperatures were 3–5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures remained 1–3.5°C above the 1981–2010 average. Gilgit and Bunji recorded the highest daytime warming, with Chilas and Bunji showing significant nighttime increases.
“Reduced nighttime cooling enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes,” the PMD said. “Rapid melting increases water accumulation in both moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes, raising the likelihood of GLOF events in downstream valleys.” Experts say these conditions elevate flood risks for communities living near rivers and glacial lakes.
The PMD’s seasonal outlook for February to April 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures across northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. Areas most vulnerable to flood risks include Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas, and Astore.
Temperature anomalies recorded between February 1 and 22 show daytime temperatures rising as much as 4.7°C above normal in Gilgit. Nighttime anomalies reached 3.4°C in Chilas, reducing overnight refreezing and accelerating snow and glacier melt at mid- to lower-altitude regions.
The department emphasized that monitoring is ongoing. “We are closely tracking glacier melt, hydrometeorological parameters, and temperature trends,” a PMD spokesperson said. Advisories will be issued promptly to local authorities and communities in high-risk zones.
Authorities urge residents in flood-prone areas to remain vigilant. Preparedness measures, including early warning systems and evacuation plans, are essential to mitigate potential damage.
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With climate variability and rising temperatures, flood risks in northern Pakistan remain a serious concern for both human settlements and critical infrastructure. Continuous monitoring and community awareness are key to reducing potential impacts in the coming months.
