An unknown trader has made headlines after earning a profit of about $410,000 on a prediction market platform. The trade came from correctly wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office.
According to data from Polymarket, the account placed bets on contracts tied to Maduro’s ouster. Before news of the US military operation that captured Maduro broke, these positions were worth about $34,000. When the capture was confirmed, their value jumped dramatically
The unknown trader first created the account late last month. Initial contracts worth just $96 were bought on December 27. These early wagers were for outcomes such as a US invasion of Venezuela by January 31. Several similar bets followed in the days before the event.
Polymarket allows users to trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world events. These markets cover many topics, including politics, economics, sports, and entertainment. Users buy contracts at low prices, and if the event occurs, they can earn up to $1 per contract.
When news of the military operation reached the public, the value of contracts tied to Maduro’s removal soared. This sudden rise translated into huge profits for traders who bet early. The account linked to the unknown trader benefited most, netting roughly $410,000 in gains.
The trade has also drawn wider attention. Global markets reacted positively to Maduro’s capture, with major stock indexes rising and oil prices increasing. Venezuelan government and PDVSA bonds also gained sharply on investor optimism.
At the same time, the incident has sparked debate about the risks and ethics of prediction markets. Some analysts and lawmakers are calling for tighter rules to prevent potential insider trading. This comes amid concerns that traders with access to nonpublic information could profit unfairly.
Polymarket recently received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission after acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange. However, the platform still faces scrutiny over regulation and oversight.
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For now, the identity of the unknown trader remains a mystery. Observers continue to watch how regulators and lawmakers respond to this high-profile prediction market wager.
