Pakistan’s overall exports are expected to remain close to $40 billion in FY2026 despite a significant decline in merchandise shipments. Strong growth in information technology and other service sectors is expected to offset the fall in goods exports, helping the country maintain stable export earnings.
According to Topline Securities, $2 Billion in Exports were lost from merchandise trade during FY2026. Provisional figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) show that goods exports declined by around 6 percent. As a result, total merchandise exports fell to nearly $30 billion during the fiscal year.
Analysts noted that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will release its Balance of Payments data in the coming weeks. The SBP figures are considered more comprehensive because they record exports based on actual foreign exchange received in the country.
The decline of $2 Billion in Exports was mainly caused by lower rice exports. Rice shipments had reached record levels in the previous year due to global supply shortages and export restrictions imposed by India. However, international rice prices later returned to normal after those restrictions eased.
Lower global prices and reduced export volumes caused Pakistan’s rice exports to fall by more than $1 billion compared to the previous fiscal year. This became the largest factor behind the overall decline in merchandise exports.
Other agricultural products also faced weaker international demand during FY2026. Several non-textile export categories remained under pressure throughout the year. These sectors were unable to match the strong performance recorded in previous years.
Pakistan’s textile sector, however, remained relatively stable. Value-added textile products showed moderate improvement during the year. Despite this growth, the textile industry could not fully compensate for losses in agriculture and other export segments.
While merchandise exports declined, the services sector delivered another strong performance. Experts expect services exports to grow by nearly 20 percent during FY2026. This growth is mainly driven by Pakistan’s expanding information technology and IT-enabled services industry.
The continued rise in software exports and digital services helped reduce the impact of the $2 Billion in Exports decline recorded in goods shipments. As a result, Pakistan’s combined goods and services exports are expected to remain close to $40.1 billion by the end of FY2026.
Data shared by Topline Securities, based on SBP estimates, shows that Pakistan’s export performance has remained resilient over recent years. Total goods and services exports increased from $38.5 billion in FY2024 to $40.4 billion in FY2025.
Although merchandise exports weakened during FY2026, the rapid growth of the services sector helped maintain overall export stability. Analysts believe Pakistan’s IT industry will continue playing an important role in supporting export earnings in the coming years.
Experts also say that diversifying export products and expanding high-value industries could reduce dependence on traditional sectors such as rice and textiles. Increasing service exports may help strengthen Pakistan’s external trade position over the long term.
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Despite the $2 Billion in Exports decline in goods, Pakistan remains on track to finish FY2026 with overall exports close to $40 billion, highlighting the growing contribution of the country’s technology and services sectors.
